Even the old timers say they’ve rarely seen it this dry. But one thing for sure, the drier it is, the higher the market goes. Some market analysts are already talking $10 and $12 wheat.

Here on our farm in Lane and Scott counties, I wish we had been as fortunate. We did get most of our wheat up but I’d say 80% would rate fair to poor. In addition, while we have made some progress with root development, we clearly have substantial risk of winterkill.

Statewide, Kansas Ag Statistics rates the ’11 crop as only 36% good to excellent. This time last year it was 72%.

Too, we didn’t plant a lot of wheat here in Kansas. At 8.8 million acres seeded, this is the second lowest since l957 when 7.2 million acres were planted.

Chad Kriegshauser in Hereford TX says wheat down there looks like wheat here in the High Plains of Kansas.  “However, we may have had some winterkill already because when our temperatures dropped below zero, we had no snow cover—and the ground was extremely dry. For sure we’ve lost all of our surface leaves,” he says.

Burl Scherler in Sheridan Lake Co says while they have good stands, he, too, is worried about winterkill. “Because of dry soils, our secondary roots never did develop.  That sets us up for severe winterkill. And I have seen that happen several times in previous years.”

Scherler is also wondering how many farmers will topdress with nitrogen or cut rates because of dry soils and high fertilizer costs.  “That could also add to low yields even if we do get rain.”

Colorado State University wheat breeder Scott Haley says southeast Colorado is in a little better shape because of mid-September rains. “That was clearly a lifesaver. Without those rains, there would be no wheat down there. But regardless, what wheat is there certainly needs a drink.”

With conditions as bad as they are, it’s safe to predict lower yields and higher abandonment. Even if it were to start raining right now, a lot of damage has already occurred. There are untold thousands of acres where the wheat hasn’t even come up yet or where we have thin and spotty stands and poor root development.

So what does all this mean? Years ago I remember a conversation with a marketing specialist from Iowa State University. He told me this: “Vance, there’s a reason why wheat goes to $10. You ain’t got any.”

And that may be exactly what’s getting ready to happen.  Dan Basse with AgResource in Chicago says the world desperately needs Kansas wheat. “We cannot stand sub-40 bushel per acre yields in Kansas or a sharp rise in abandonment.

“Our crop scouts looked at Kansas wheat in late December and say it’s the worst looking Kansas crop since ’87-’88.”

That’s comforting. Our wheat yields that year were only 33 bushels per acre. And it gets worse. We only had 11.2 inches of precip—for the entire year. Knowing that, I’m sure getting excited about planting milo.

Basse goes on to say that we can only hope for rain or snow before Valentines’ Day. “But between you and me, I’ve just got a real bad feeling about this year. Our climate scientist is very worried about a drought in your neck of the woods.

“With weather problems in Russia, China, Australia and even North Africa, the world wheat market could get very spicy, very fast as crops break dormancy. Let’s just hope it rains around the world—otherwise wheat prices are going back to “08 levels.” Basse concludes.

Vance Ehmke and his wife, Louise, grow certified seed wheat in Lane County, Kansas.